MEXICO – Job market with signs of deterioration We forecast unemployment rate at 2.9% in 2025. ARGENTINA – A current account surplus in 2024 We forecast a current account deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2025, down from a surplus of 1.0% of GDP in 2024. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision The board delivered a 50-bp cut (decision 5 x 0) and indicated another 50-bp in May. ARGENTINA – Activity maintains momentum We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 4.5%, with upside risks due to a high carryover and the expected improvement of demand-side components. MEXICO – USD 2.2 billion trade surplus in February The non-oil trade balance continued to improve at the margin. ARGENTINA – Government confidence remained high Confidence in Milei’s government remains high, despite the impact of the cryptocurrency scandal and the ongoing macro adjustment. MEXICO – January retail sales exceed expectations We expect the sector to remain slightly positive in 2025. MEXICO – January’s Monthly GDP Our 2025 GDP forecast was recently revised down to 0.0%. CHILE – Monetary Policy Report Inflation still seen at 3% target by early 2026. MEXICO – Mar 1H CPI close to expectations We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Time to accumulate information. PARAGUAY – Monetary Policy Meeting We expect no change in the policy rate through 2025. URUGUAY – Activity expanded 3.1% in 2024 We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 2.3%, with upside risks stemming from high carryover and the expected improvement in the tourism season in 1Q25. MEXICO – Aggregate supply and demand lost steam Our 2025 GDP forecast was recently revised down to 0.0%. ARGENTINA – Trade surplus narrowed in February The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 0.2 billion in February. ARGENTINA – GDP rose sequentially in 4Q24 We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 4.5%, with upside risks due to a high carryover and the expected improvement of demand-side components. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting & IPoM Preview Expecting a neutral bias. COLOMBIA – A gradual widening of the trade deficit in January Imports gained momentum. CHILE – Lowest CAD since 2010 Well-financed CAD. CHILE – Activity in 4Q24 builds on prior momentum with investment picking up Domestic trends up. PERU – BCRP held its Monetary Policy Rate at 4.75% Holding rates. ARGENTINA – Expected rebound in monthly inflation in February We expect the disinflation process to resume in the coming months with headline inflation falling to 25% by year-end. COLOMBIA – Strong activity start to the year Activity is accelerating at the margin. MEXICO – Industrial production surprised negatively Momentum in the industry sector remains weak in January (QoQ/SAAR at -7.2%). COLOMBIA – An upside CPI surprise in February Energy CPI rebounded. ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction We expect GDP growth of 4.5% this year, after a contraction of 1.8% in 2024. CHILE – Import growth continues to recover in Feb Trade surpluses will like moderate ahead. MEXICO – CPI accelerated in February, but remains within Banxico’s target We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%. CHILE – No surprises. CPI increased by 0.4% in Feb Core inflation dynamics are better behaved. URUGUAY – Inflation surprises to the downside again We recently revised our YE25 CPI forecast down to 5.5% from 6.0% previously. PARAGUAY – Inflation surprises to the downside We forecast a gradual decline in inflation to 3.5% by the end of 2025. COLOMBIA – The CAD narrowed to 1.8% of GDP in 2024 In 2024, the current account deficit narrowed despite softer exports. CHILE – Public Finance: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Revenue improvement continued, as spending roared back.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate surprised to the downside in January Self-employment and private salaried posts boosted job creation. CHILE – Retail sales outperform Consumer-tourism lifts activity. CHILE – Labor market improvement in January Job demand shows improvement. MEXICO – USD 4.6 billion trade deficit in Jan25 Oil trade balance continued to deteriorate at the margin. MEXICO – Unemployment rate still low at the beginning of 2025 We forecast unemployment rate at 2.8% in 2025. ARGENTINA – Activity fell by 1.8% in 2024 We expect 4.5% growth in 2025. MEXICO – Current account ended 2024 We forecast a current account deficit of 0.6% in 2025. ARGENTINA – Government confidence fell in February Confidence in Milei’s government remains high, despite the decline in the first two months of the year. MEXICO – CPI continues to decelerate We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9% (3.6% in 2026). PERU – Stronger than expected activity in 2024 Robust GDP in 4Q24. MEXICO – GDP rose 1.5% in 2024 We forecast GDP to grow 0.9% in 2025. MEXICO – Retail sales surprised in December We expect the sector to remain slightly on positive terms in 2025. ARGENTINA – Trade surplus narrowed For 2025 we expect a trade surplus of USD 12.0 billion. COLOMBIA – 1.7% GDP growth in 2024 Investment is recovering, while consumption dynamics soften. ARGENTINA – A fiscal surplus to start 2025 We expect a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2025, consistent with a balanced nominal budget, both in line with the 2025 budget bill. PERU – Stronger than expected activity Robust GDP in December driven by Primary Sectors and Manufacturing. COLOMBIA – Mixed activity data to end 2024 Retail sales momentum in 4Q improved. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in 2024 In 2024, exports contracted 0.4%, dragged by coal sales. PERU – BCRP held its Monetary Policy Rate at 4.75% Monetary Policy Rate edging closer to neutral. URUGUAY – The BCU increased the policy rate The BCU's decision takes place in the context of rising inflation expectations. ARGENTINA – Disinflation process continued in Jan. We expect the disinflation process to continue in 2025 with headline inflation falling to 25% by year-end, well below the 117.8% yoy inflation in YE24. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes A hawkish twist. MEXICO – Industrial production weaker in 2024 Tariffs from the US could also generate distortions in manufacturing exports COLOMBIA – Fiscal consolidation delayed In 2025, regaining fiscal credibility is at stake. COLOMBIA – Strong inflation start to 2025 Services inflation remains elevated. CHILE – Public Finance: A large fiscal miss as medium-term headwinds loom 2025 fiscal target set to be missed as well. ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction expanded sequentially in December Leading indicators point to another sequential expansion of the GDP proxy in December. CHILE – A volatiles-led CPI rise in January Upside risks to our 4% yearend call. MEXICO – CPI close to expectations We forecast CPI will end 2025 at 3.9%. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: 50-bp is the new pace, for now The board delivered a 50-bp cut (decision 4 x 1). URUGUAY – Annual inflation decelerated in January We foresee inflation at 6.0% by YE25, at the upper bound of the central bank’s inflation target range. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Convergence to the inflation target range delayed to 2026 Higher inflation and neutral rate. MEXICO – Domestic demand decelerated Headwinds that affected activity in 4Q24 are likely to persist in 2025. PARAGUAY – Higher-than-expected inflation in Jan We forecast inflation at 3.5% by the end of 2025. PERU – Inflation surprises to the downside again Underlying price pressures remain contained. CHILE – GDP growth surprised to the upside in 2024 Growth bias tilted to the upside for 2025. CHILE – Public Finance: A bittersweet end to a challenging year Unprecedented December spending contraction to revert in January.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting A more challenging disinflationary process. COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate ended 2024 Improving employment dynamics in 4Q24 lifted by services. CHILE – Credit: Are we over the hump? Loan dynamics are gradually improving. CHILE – The labor market remained weak in 4Q24 Job creation deteriorated significantly in 4Q24. CHILE – Activity indicators ended the year stron Mining production recovered in 2024. MEXICO – Public finance: A challenging 2024 We forecast a nominal fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP in 2025. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in November Imports continued to rebound during the latter part of 2024. MEXICO – Worse than expected 4Q24 GDP Flash GDP at 1.5% in 2024, lower than expected. CHILE – A pension reform finally sees the light While positive on net for Chilean risk assets, medium-term fiscal risks linger. MEXICO – Unemployment rate ended 2024 at a record Real wage bill up by 5.6% YoY in 2024. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting A prolonged period of rates-on-hold ahead. ARGENTINA – Government confidence remained high at the start of 2025 Confidence in Milei's government remains high, despite the slight dip in January. MEXICO – USD 8.2 billion trade deficit in 2024 Oil trade balance continued to deteriorate at the margin. MEXICO – November’s monthly GDP with a visible deceleration We forecast a slight contraction for the 4Q24. CHILE – Monetary Policy Preview Rising medium-term inflation expectations are a sign of concern. ARGENTINA – Strong sequential expansion of activity in November We recently revised our 2024 forecast to -2.6% (now with risks title to a lower drop) from -3.0% in our previous scenario. For 2025, we expect an expansion of 4.5%. MEXICO – Core pressure persists in 1H January CPI Limited disinflation ahead. MEXICO – Retail sales fell in November Consumption determinants remain positive. ARGENTINA – A record trade surplus in 2024 For 2025 we expect a surplus of USD 12.0 billion. COLOMBIA – Activity indicators rose sequentially Retail sales surprised to the upside in November. ARGENTINA – An unprecedented fiscal consolidation We expect a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2025, consistent with a balanced nominal budget. PERU – Activity recovery continued in November The activity recovery remains well on track. MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in October Investment contracted while consumption should be the key driver of domestic demand. ARGENTINA – Inflation reached 117.8% in 2024 We expect the disinflation process to continue in 2025. We now see inflation at 25% in YE25, down from 30% in our previous scenario and well below the 117.8% yoy inflation in YE24. CHILE – Public Finance: MoF’s 2025 Financing Plan No surprises in the financing plan. COLOMBIA – An upside CPI surprise to end 2024 Durable and non-durable goods rebounded, while services prices decelerated. MEXICO – Industrial production sideways in Nov. Soft IP momentum as of November. PERU – BCRP resumed the cycle cut to 4.75%. Monetary Policy Rate edging close to neutral. MEXICO – Inflation ends 2024 at 4.2% We forecast 3.9% YoY by the end of 2025. ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction Leading indicators such as manufacturing and construction point to a new sequential expansion in 4Q24. We therefore see upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for 2024. CHILE – CPI decline in December Core inflation pressures remain high. CHILE – A large trade surplus in 2024 Recovering domestic demand. CHILE – Public Finance: How many dollars will the MoF sell in 2025? MoF to sell roughly USD7 billion in 2025. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Signaling pauses ahead Risks tilt towards a delay in reaching the terminal rate of the cycle. URUGUAY – Annual inflation accelerated in December Our YE25 inflation forecast stands at 6%, up from the 5.49% of the end of 2024, in line with our call for a weaker currency. MEXICO – Unemployment remains close Still a tight labor market, but some deceleration in employment at the margin. CHILE – Public Finance: 2024 fiscal target Lagged revenue recovery weighs on the fiscal accounts. MEXICO – Public balance deficit at record highs We forecast a nominal fiscal deficit of 5.9% in 2024 and 3.9% of GDP in 2025. CHILE – Upside activity surprise in November Near potential growth and elevated uncertainty support a rate cut pause. PERU – Inflation ends the year at the midpoint of the target range Inflation ends the year at its lowest level in 4 years. CHILE – Credit: Still no sign of improvement in commercial loan demand Flows of commercial loans increased again at the margin.

CHILE – Unemployment rate surprised in November Slack in the labor market persists. COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate surprised in November Private salaried posts continued to be the main job creator. ARGENTINA – Confidence in the government high Confidence in Milei's administration has remained strong, despite the significant macro adjustment. MEXICO – October’s Monthly GDP We expect 1.7% growth in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. MEXICO – Deficit in November’s trade balance Non-oil trade balance continued to improve at the margin. MEXICO – Moderation in the non-core component helps December CPI annual print Headline inflation fell to 4.44% from 4.54% in the 2H of November. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: BanRep surprised with a smaller 25bp cut to 9.50% International and local risks led to a deceleration of the cycle. ARGENTINA – Activity expanded sequentially at the beginning of 4Q24 We recently revised our 2024 forecast to -3.0% (now with risks title to a lower drop) from -3.5% in our previous scenario. For 2025, we expect an expansion of 4.2%. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision The board expects further and possibly larger cuts in the future. ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected trade surplus We see upside risks to our USD 17 billion trade surplus for 2024. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly in October Last quarter of the year starts with an improvement in import dynamics. CHILE – Monetary Policy Report Inflation revised up yet again. MEXICO – Positive data from supply and demand We expect 1.7% growth in 2024. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Easing cycle to take a breather. ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation continued in Nov The official estimate is a 1.9% of GDP primary surplus for 2024. MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside Weaker activity data at the margin. ARGENTINA – Exiting the recession in 3Q24 We see upside risk to our 2024 GDP forecast of -3.0%. COLOMBIA – Activity surprised to the upside Manufacturing levels improved at the margin. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview Fiscal uncertainty warrants cautiousness. CHILE – Monetary Policy & IPoM Preview Cautious towards neutral. ARGENTINA – Another downside inflation surprise We expect the disinflation process to continue in 2025. MEXICO – Another good inflation print in November Benign inflation scenario with a still numb pass-through and lower service inflation. COLOMBIA – Inflation above market consensus Services inflation remained elevated. CHILE – No CPI surprise in November; BCCh to cut 25bp later this month Core inflation pressures remain high, but domestic demand is soft. MEXICO – Gross Fixed Investment fell by 3.3% YoY Internal demand below expectations in September, but consumption remains strong. COLOMBIA – Narrow current account deficit in 3Q24 Foreign direct investment continued to fall in the 3Q. PERU – Inflation rose by 0.1% MoM in November Inflation rises in November in line with expectations. CHILE – A business services led sequential activity uptick in October The outlook remains challenging. CHILE – Public Finance: Revenue recovery risks being too little, too late Still waiting for the spending cuts to materialize.

COLOMBIA – Stable employment levels in October Private salaried posts remain a key employment driver. CHILE – Credit: Still in the doldrums as weak dynamics endure Outstanding consumer loans in Chile improved at the margin. CHILE – We expect IMACEC to rise by 2.5% YoY in October Favorable activity momentum in the quarter. CHILE – Weak sequential job dynamics in October Mining job dynamics upbeat; weakness elsewhere. MEXICO – October’s trade balance above expectations On a 12-month rolling basis, the trade deficit reached USD 5.8 billion in October. URUGUAY – Yamandú Orsi was elected president for the next five years The next government will begin its five-year term on 1 March 2025. ARGENTINA – Against all odds: Confidence in the government edges higher Confidence in Milei's administration has remained strong. ARGENTINA – Activity expanded sequentially in 3Q24 We see upside risks to our 2024 forecast of -3.5%. PERU – 3Q24 printed above expectations Activity recovery remains on track. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in 3Q24 Imports fell sequentially in 3Q24. ARGENTINA – Another trade surplus in October Our trade balance surplus forecast for 2024 stands at USD 17.0 billion, significantly above the USD 6.9 billion deficit registered in 2023. CHILE – Public Finance: An update on the MoF’s dollar sales Sales to continue at least through mid-December. COLOMBIA – Weaker-than-expected activity in 3Q24 Gross fixed investment continued a gradual recovery. CHILE – Well-financed current account deficit Copper exports supported a large trade surplus for goods. CHILE – Activity expectedly rebounded sequentially Net-exports lifted annual growth. ARGENTINA – Fiscal surplus continued in October Our primary fiscal balance forecast stands at +1.5% of GDP for 2024. COLOMBIA – Mixed activity performance in 3Q24 Manufacturing contracted again in 2Q24. ARGENTINA – Monthly Inflation Breaks the 3 Barrier We expect lower inflation in 2024 and 2025. We now foresee inflation at 120% by YE24, down from 125% in our previous scenario. For YE25 we envisage inflation at 35%, down from 45% before. COLOMBIA – Consumer prices fall in October Core price dynamics remain sticky. CHILE – Inflation strikes back in October High core pressures at the margin. PERU – Monetary policy: BCRP cuts again to 5.0% Real rate is closer to neutral. CHILE – Trade surplus continued to climb Improving domestic demand signals. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report A smaller negative output gap expected. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes In October, the BCCh’s Board unanimously cut the policy rate by 25 bp to 5.25%. CHILE – Sequential activity decline in September Investment signals remain weak. CHILE – Public Finance: Starting to shake off the revenue gloom? Deficit set to widen further in 4Q24.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A cautious stance is maintained with a 50bp cut. Tighter global financial conditions prevent a larger cut. COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate declined at the margin in September Employment dropped at the margin. CHILE – Credit: Contraction of commercial loans persists NPLs continue to rise. CHILE – Activity picks up in 3Q We expect IMACEC growth of 1.1%. CHILE – Lower-than-expected unemployment rate Job recovery scenario is not yet in the cards. URUGUAY – No surprises in the elections A new race begins for the November 24 runoff. Sunday’s election results point to a tight second round. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview Caution to prevail albeit less favorable external financial conditions. ARGENTINA – Modest sequential growth in activity The second consecutive improvement in economic activity in August is consistent with our view of a sequential recovery starting in 3Q24. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly Imports fell sequentially in August. ARGENTINA – Another trade surplus in September Our trade balance surplus forecast for 2024 stands at USD 17.0 billion. CHILE – Monetary Policy: A 25bp cut to 5.25% We expect the BCCh to maintain the pace of 25 bp cuts ahead. ARGENTINA – Fiscal surpluses continued in 3Q24 We expect a balanced nominal fiscal result for 2024 and 2025. CHILE – Monetary Policy: All set for a 25bps cut Advancing towards neutral. PERU – Activity recovery continued in August Minnig drives the recovery in August. COLOMBIA – Mixed activity in August Manufacturing levels remained weak. PERU – BCRP surprises keeping the rate at 5.25% Higher oil prices and global uncertainty likely drove the decision ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation starts with "3" Our inflation forecast for YE24 is 125%. MEXICO – Banxico minutes: Signaling continuous cuts Two members appear willing to discuss accelerating. MEXICO – Gradual core disinflation continues Banxico’s continuous easing cycle to proceed in November CHILE – Volatile foods drive a large downside inflation surprise in September Rebound expected in October. COLOMBIA – Disinflation process continued in September, as services stickiness persists Headline CPI moderated at the margin in 3Q24. CHILE – Trade surplus remained high in Septembe r Copper exports boom. CHILE – Public Finance: Deficit to rise above the targe t Revenue misses weigh on the fiscal accounts.

PERU – Another downside inflation surprise Falling inflation to allow for more cuts. CHILE – Mining lifts activity in August Activity dynamics are improving after a weak 2Q. CHILE – Credit: Outstanding loans fell further Borrowing rates to fall further. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A split board cuts by 50bps Despite the drop in inflation, it remains high. COLOMBIA – Labor market resilience in August Employment increased sequentially. CHILE – Activity surprised to the upside again in August Revising IMACEC up. CHILE – Unemployment rate edged higher in August Looser labor marker supports more rate cuts. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview: Caution to prevail, but a 75bp cut cannot be ruled out BanRep will wait for more clarity on the upside risks to inflation. ARGENTINA – Activity rebounded sequentially in July The sequential improvement in economic activity in July is in line with our view of a sequential recovery starting in 3Q24. MEXICO – Gradual core disinflation continues Banxico to deliver another 25-bp cut this month. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Cuts to continue. ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected trade surplus We see upside risks to our 2024 trade surplus forecast of USD 15 billion. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly in July Consumer goods imports on an upward trend. ARGENTINA – The fiscal surplus marches on Our primary fiscal balance forecast stands at +1.0% of GDP. ARGENTINA – GDP contracted sequentially in 2Q24 We recently revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to -4.0% (from -3.5%). C OLOMBIA – Proposed financing law The fiscal consolidation path is once more delayed COLOMBIA – Activity increased from June to July Retail sales and manufacturing increased at the margin. PERU – Monetary policy: another 25-bp cut We expect another cut later in the year. ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in Aug We still foresee downside risks for our 130% inflation forecast by YE24. MEXICO – Gradual core disinflation continued Banxico to deliver another 25-bp cut this month. COLOMBIA – A downside inflation surprise in August A widespread deceleration in inflation, but services remain elevated. CHILE – Trade surplus remained elevated in August Imports yet to consolidate a sustained improvement. CHILE – Inflation rose by 0.26% in August Diverging sequential pressures. CHILE – Monetary Policy Report Reduced inflation persistence supports cuts ahead. CHILE – Monetary Policy: A unanimous 25bps cut Updated guidance is coherent with two further cuts this year to 5%. MEXICO – Internal demand weakened further Private consumption slipped. COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 2Q24 A significant narrowing of the CAD was observed in the 2Q24. PERU – Core inflation fell within the target band Inflation at the margin plummeted. CHILE – July activity rebound exceeds expectations Unwinding prior shocks. CHILE – PublicFinance: Waiting for stronger growth 2024 deficit target seems very challenging.

COLOMBIA – Labor market resilience in July Employment increased sequentially in July. CHILE – Credit: Outstanding loans fell again Consumer NPLs resumed downward trend. CHILE – Manufacturing rebounded; IMACEC estimated Mining has been a key driver of growth this year. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting & IPoM Preview IPoM to include a revision of the structural parameters CHILE – Unemployment rate surprises to the upside Informal posts account for 3/5 of annual job creation. MEXICO – July’s trade balance was better Manufacturing exports rebounded. MEXICO – A current account surplus in 2Q24 A lower services deficit contributed to a smaller CAD on a rolling 4-quarter basis. MEXICO – Soft activity in 2Q24 Our GDP growth forecast of 1.6% has a downside bias. MEXICO – Banxico minutes We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in the September meeting. MEXICO – Inflation to the downside in 1H August We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in September. ARGENTINA – Activity fell in June Our GDP growth forecast for 2024 is -3.5%, now with downside risks due to the sizable negative statistical carryover from 2Q24 ARGENTINA – Trade surplus increased in July The trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 1.6 billion in July, well above the USD 0.7 billion deficit registered in the same month of 2023. MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside Weak activity supports further rate cuts. CHILE – An expected activity downturn in 2Q24 Net-exports lift annual growth amid soft domestic demand and upbeat mining. CHILE – A small current account deficit in 2Q24 FDI dynamics bolster favorable financing mix. ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation continues Our primary fiscal balance forecast stands at +1.0% of GDP. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit rose sequentially in 2Q24 Imports increased sequentially in 2Q24. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Decisions ahead dependent on incoming data. COLOMBIA – Weaker than expected GDP in 2Q24 Gross fixed investment returned to positive territory. PERU – Activity proxy slipped in June Our GDP growth forecast for 2024 stands at 3.1%. ARGENTINA – Disinflation continued in July CPI posted the lowest reading since January 2022. COLOMBIA – Retail sales and manufacturing contracted in 2Q24 Manufacturing fell from 1Q24. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: further rate cuts are data dependent Core inflation forecast path remained unchanged. CHILE – Electricity expectedly lifts July inflation Elevated YTD inflationary pressures. MEXICO – Inflation surprised slightly to the upside in July Fruits & vegetables pressures seem to be easing in the 2H July. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Higher short-term growth and inflation lead to a cautious rate path The main risk to inflation is related to the persistence of the service prices. MEXICO – Monetary policy preview: a 25-bp rate cut A split decision is likely. PERU – Headline inflation surprised to the downside in July However, core inflation remained persistently above the inflation target. CHILE – IMACEC grows well below expectations Several indicators suggest a moderate improvement ahead.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting The technical staff revised the GDP growth call up. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting An earlier-than-expected pause. CHILE – Credit: Flows of Commercial Loans surprisingly rose at the margin Borrowing rates fell further. COLOMBIA – Unemployment declined at the margin Private salaried posts continued to be the main job creator. CHILE – Mixed sectoral activity in June Overall activity dynamics underwhelmed in 2Q24. MEXICO – Nominal fiscal deficit narrowed in June Fiscal expenditures on subsidies & transfers appear to be normalizing. CHILE – Unemployment in line with expectations As inflation rises and interest rates remain high, labor market recovery dynamics are likely to soften. MEXICO – Another soft GDP expansion in 2Q24 Our 2024 GDP growth forecast stands at 1.6%. MEXICO – Trade balance was below expectations Weaker currency could give some support to manufacturing exports in 2H24. CHILE – Monetary Policy Preview: Closer to a pause Short-term inflation expectations have edged higher. MEXICO – 1H July headline inflation surprised to the upside Upside pressure was mainly due to volatile fruits & vegetable prices. MEXICO – Monthly GDP proxy rebounded in May Our GDP growth forecast for 2024 stands at 1.6%. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit rose further in May Consumer goods imports picked-up. ARGENTINA – Trade surplus rose higher in June The trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 1.9 billion in June. ARGENTINA – Activity rebounds after downturn Activity increased sequentially in May. ARGENTINA – Another fiscal surplus in June Tax collection fell by 4.2% yoy in real terms in the period, after dropping by 4.8% in 1Q24. COLOMBIA – Activity indicators remained weak Manufacturing continues to trend down in May. PERU – Another activity upside surprise in May Primary sector was the main driver to the headline figure. ARGENTINA – Inflation surprises to the downside Consistent downside surprises to inflation, a stronger ARS, and weaker activity, we lowered our inflation forecast to 130% for YE24 (from 140%). MEXICO – Industrial production rebounded in May IP was driven by a strong expansion in construction. PERU – Monetary policy: BCRP extended the pause BCRP extended the pause. MEXICO – Banxico minutes We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in the August meeting. COLOMBIA – Gradual core disinflation to prevent a larger rate cut Food prices surprised to the upside. MEXICO – Headline inflation surprised to the upside Core inflation eased further, a 25-bp rate cut is still on the table in August. CHILE – Weak imports drive large trade surplus Narrow CAD to continue. CHILE – Consumer prices drop in June Services inflation picks up. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes BCCh Board set to tread carefully. MEXICO – Internal demand was broadly in line Private consumption weakened while GFI expanded at a decent pace. PERU – Well-behaved inflation in June Headline inflation remains within the target range of 2+/-1%.

CHILE – Activity posted a consecutive retreat Several indicators support weaker activity dynamics. CHILE – Public Finance Interest payments rose by 50%. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Fiscal concerns eased following latest update. ARGENTINA – Activity slump continued in April Our 2024 GDP growth forecast stands at -3.0%, with downside risks. COLOMBIA – Labor market resilience continued Private salaried posts remain a key employment driver. CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity in May After an upbeat 1Q, activity is slowing. CHILE – The unemployment rate fell again in May However, we believe the labor market still has some slack. CHILE – Credit: Persistent weakness in commercial loans raises risk of a slow recovery in investment Consumer NPLs continue to expectedly decline. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a rate cut is back on the table Our base scenario is for a rate cut of 25-bp in the next meeting. MEXICO – Trade balance improved in May Manufacturing exports posted a strong expansion, while non-energy imports weakened. ARGENTINA – Current account surplus in 1Q24 We forecast a current account surplus of 1.5% of GDP for 2024. ARGENTINA – GDP contracted sequentially in 1Q24 Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at -3.0%. MEXICO – 1H June inflation We expect Banxico to pause at 11.00% this Thursday. MEXICO – April’s monthly GDP weakened The headline figure was dragged by the primary, industrial and services sectors. COLOMBIA – The trade deficit widened in April Imports increased sequentially. ARGENTINA – Wide trade surplus in May For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 15 billion, from a deficit of USD 6.9 billion in 2023. MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside However, momentum remained soft. MEXICO – Monetary policy preview We expect cuts to resume later this year. CHILE – Monetary Policy Report A more cautious policy rate path ahead. CHILE – An expected 25bp cut to 5.75% Caution ahead as inflation to be revised up. ARGENTINA – Large fiscal surplus in May Our fiscal primary balance forecast stands at +0.5% of GDP for 2024. MEXICO – Solid domestic demand in 1Q24 Domestic demand was driven by private consumption. COLOMBIA – Fiscal deficit rises despite efforts A challenging fiscal consolidation. PERU – A surprisingly strong activity print We expect GDP growth of 2.7% this year. COLOMBIA – Activity indicators post surprises Despite weak demand, BanRep is expected to remain cautious. CHILE – Electricity price readjustments Electricity price hikes are expected to be relevant. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting & IPoM Preview: Down to 25 Short-term inflationary pressures will add a layer of MP caution. PERU – Monetary policy: BCRP surprised again with a pause We expect further rate cuts during the rest of the year. ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation consolidates We recently lowered our inflation forecast to 140% for YE24 (from 160% previously). ARGENTINA – Habemus Law The Senate’s approval of the Bases bill and fiscal reform is a positive step for the government. COLOMBIA – Core disinflation process continued We envisage BanRep’s easing cycle to continue at a gradual pace in the short-term. MEXICO – Industrial production weakened in April Industrial production momentum remained soft. CHILE – Large trade surplus continued in May Weakness of capital goods imports continued. CHILE – Consumer prices rise above expectations Services CPI gradually edges down. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes The benefit of not surprising. MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside We expect a rate cut in June, but the new political landscape poses risks. ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction in April Manufacturing and construction sectors recovered in April. MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in 1Q24 Private consumption and GFI expanded at a decent pace in March. COLOMBIA – Current account deficit contained Favorable CAD financing. CHILE – A second consecutive Imacec retreat Leading indicators suggest an activity improvement. PERU – Another downside inflation surprise in May The odds of another rate cut are increasing. CHILE – Public Finance: Revenues improved as spending spree continues Spending remains unexpectedly strong.

COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected unemployment rate Unemployment rate (SA) ticked up at the margin. CHILE – Credit: NPLs appear to have stabilized Consumer loans rise further. CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity in April After an upbeat 1Q, activity momentum started to fade CHILE – Unemployment rate continued to trend down in April Labor slack persists, preventing demand-side inflationary pressures. MEXICO – 1Q24 Inflation Report: another rate cut is likely We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in the June meeting. CHILE – An expected 50-bp cut to 6.0% A consecutive 50bp cut cannot be ruled out in June. ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in 1Q24 Our 2024 GDP call for a contraction of 3.0% has downside risks, despite the normalization of the agriculture sector. ARGENTINA – Trade balance surplus continued in April For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 15 billion, from a deficit of USD 6.9 billion in 2023. COLOMBIA – Trade balance improved in 1Q24 Imports fell sequentially in 1Q24. CHILE – GDP rose sequentially in 1Q24 We still expect a 2.4% 2024 GDP growth, but with an upside bias. CHILE – Near-balanced current account in 1Q24 Copper price dynamics will consolidate a sustainable-financed CAD scenario. ARGENTINA – Another fiscal surplus in April We continue to see a primary fiscal surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2024. COLOMBIA – Gradual private consumption recovery continued in 1Q24 While investment increased at the margin, overall dynamics remain weak. PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in March Activity recovery remains fragile. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview Yearend inflation expectations tick up, fewer cuts seen this year. ARGENTINA – Inflation fell into single digits in April We recently lowered our inflation forecast to 160% for YE24 (from 180% previously). CHILE – Public Finance: Medium-term headwinds persist Near-term fiscal outlook somewhat better, primarily due to mining-related revenue. COLOMBIA – Retail and manufacturing activity contracted in 1Q24 Manufacturing levels dropped from 4Q23. MEXICO – Industrial production expanded in March Still, IP momentum in 1Q24 was soft. PERU – Monetary policy: Another 25-bp cut Further policy rate reductions are limited given a narrowing of the rate differential. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision New forward guidance opens the door for a rate cut in the next meeting. COLOMBIA – April disinflation in line Core inflation continues to correct. MEXICO – Mixed inflation results in April Headline inflation was above market consensus, while core inflation was slightly below. CHILE – Consumer prices surprised to the upside Tradable inflation starts to tick up. CHILE – Financial Stability Report Signaling a “neutral” level for the CCyB above the current 0.5% of RWAs. CHILE – Another large trade surplus in April Weak capital imports persist. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report A smaller negative output gap expected. MEXICO – Internal demand expanded in February Both – private consumption and GFI improved in February. CHILE – A March retreat to conclude an upbeat 1Q24 Mining boosts activity in 1Q24. CHILE – Public Finance: Revenue dynamics improved Spending growth slowed PERU – Inflation surprised to the downside in April Headline inflation is inside the BCRP's 2+/-1% target range.

MEXICO – Below target nominal fiscal deficit On a 12-month rolling basis, the nominal fiscal deficit widened. COLOMBIA - Monetary Policy Meeting: Déjà Vu Tighter global financial conditions prevent a larger cut. COLOMBIA – Unemployment rises in 1Q24 Growth of private salaried posts slows. CHILE – Credit growth remains weak Consumer NPLs fell at the margin. CHILE – Slow but steady sectorial activity gains We expect March Imacec to increase 0.9% YoY. CHILE – Unemployment rate falls in 1Q24 Employment growth consolidates. MEXICO – Soft flash GDP estimate in 1Q24 However, activity rebounded in February and likely in March. MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside in 1H April We expect Banxico to pause in May’s monetary policy meeting. ARGENTINA – Activity fell further in February We still maintain our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for 2024. ARGENTINA – Delivering results an unprecedented fiscal surplus in 1Q24 The fiscal results of the administration are impressive so far, comfortably exceeding IMF targets. MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the upside to the upside in February An improvement in services sector and a strong primary output were the main drivers. COLOMBIA – The trade deficit widened slightly in February Investment-related imports remain weak. MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in February The recovery in retail sales suggests strong fiscal spending is starting to show in the data. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: More cuts ahead, size likely dependent on data We expect the BCCh step down the pace to 50-bp at the May meeting. COLOMBIA – Activity indicators remained weak Widespread drag for retail sales. PERU – Activity was above market expectations Construction and mining supported activity. ARGENTINA – Inflation decelerated further in March We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 180%. MEXICO – Soft industrial production in February Industrial production was dragged by construction output. MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprised Easing of tourism related prices in 2H March exerted relevant downward pressure. CHILE – Another positive trade surplus in March We expect a manageable CAD of just below 4% this year. CHILE – Consumer prices surprised to the downside Sequential services pressures remain elevated. COLOMBIA – Gradual disinflation process continued Core inflation continued to fall. MEXICO – Banxico minutes Our base case remains for another rate cut in May. CHILE – Monetary Policy Report The correction of prior imbalances allows for further gradual rate cuts. MEXICO – Weak internal demand in January GFI lost momentum as private consumption is softening. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting An expected deceleration to 75bps. PERU – Another upside inflation surprise Further monetary easing is likely this year. CHILE – Widespread sequential growth in February Leading indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery. CHILE – Public Finance: A challenging start Revenues continue to disappoint.

CHILE – Labor market dynamics improved again in Feb Private salaried job pull increases. CHILE – Leap-year boost to activity in February Activity continues to surprise positively at the margin. MEXICO–2025 Preliminary Economic Policy Guidelines Fiscal consolidation for 2025 will likely be challenging. COLOMBIA – Employment dynamics weaken in Februa ry Unemployment rate is trending up. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview We expect a year-end policy rate of 4.75%. MEXICO – Smaller than expected trade deficit Trade balance figures suggest an improvement in activity in February. ARGENTINA – Activity fell further in January We maintain our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for 2024. COLOMBIA - Monetary Policy Meeting A cautious rate cut path is justified. MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside Services and primary sectors were the main drags to activity. MEXICO – Core inflation surprised to the upside Tourism related prices was the main upside pressure to core inflation. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision Further rate cuts will be data dependent. MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside Soft retail sales contrast with the frontloaded expansionary fiscal stance. MEXICO – Resilient domestic demand in 4Q23 Private consumption expanded at a still favorable pace. COLOMBIA – The trade deficit fell further in Jan. Imports continue to adjust. CHILE – Activity surprised to the upside in 4Q23 Private consumption annual drag continues to ease. CHILE – CAD narrows 5.1pp to 3.6% of GDP in 2023 Net-FDI funded CAD. ARGENTINA – Another monthly fiscal surplus We expect a balanced primary fiscal account (0% of GDP) in 2024, below the official forecast of a surplus of 2.0% of GDP. ARGENTINA – Inflation decelerated further in February Our inflation forecast for year-end 2024 stands at 180%, with upside risks, despite the lower-than-expected February print. MEXICO – Industrial production surprised in January However, momentum remains soft. CHILE – Another large upside surprise in inflation Higher CPI to challenge rate cut pace. PERU – Monetary policy: a surprise pause Our end of year policy rate forecast of 5.00% has an upward bias. COLOMBIA – Disinflation process continued in February Disinflation process supports a larger rate cut in March. CHILE – Weak imports support USD1.5bi trade surplus We expect some CAD widening to around 4% this year. MEXICO – Presidential Campaigns kick off Claudia Sheinbaum leads the polls. COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 2023 The lowest annual CAD since 2010. PERU – Inflation surprised to the upside in February Food & non-alcoholic beverages pushed prices up in the month. CHILE – Large upside activity surprise in January The strong start to the year likely offsets the weak close to 2023 And just to plans, the 2md chile that was scheduled for today will be published on Monday.

CHILE –Activity indicators surprised to the upside Activity off to a strong start to the year. MEXICO – 4Q23 Inflation Report We still expect a 25-bp rate cut in March. CHILE – Better than expected labor market data We may have reached a turning point. MEXICO – Greater than expected trade deficit in January Manufacturing exports weakened in the first month of the year. MEXICO – Narrow current account deficit in 2023 A lower energy goods deficit outweighed softer remittances. ARGENTINA – Activity contracted by 1.6% in 2023 We maintain our GDP growth forecast of -2.5% for 2024. MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes Our base scenario is for a rate cut in March. MEXICO – Activity slowed in 4Q23 Industrial production and primary sectors were the main drags to activity in 4Q23. MEXICO – Downside inflation surprise in 1H February Downside pressure came mainly from the reversal of agricultural prices. MEXICO – Weak retail sales in December Main private consumption determinants remain healthy. ARGENTINA – Trade surplus at the beginning of 2024 For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 20.0 million. ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation program starts We expect a balanced primary fiscal account (0% of GDP) in 2024. COLOMBIA – GDP grows by a lower-than-expected 0.6% Weak investment persists. PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in December. GDP growth for 2023 reached -0.6%. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes We expect the Board will continue with the 100bp rate cut pace in April. ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation decelerated in January. Our inflation forecast for year-end 2024 stands at 180%, with upside risks. COLOMBIA – Weak retail activity in December Retail sales continued to trend down. COLOMBIA – Gradual trade deficit narrowing in 2023 Weaker imports supported the trade deficit narrowing advance in 2023. MEXICO – Industrial production surprised again Construction and manufacturing sectors dragged industrial production. PERU – Monetary policy: easing to continue Our end of year policy rate forecast is at 5.00%. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Meeting We expect the easing cycle to begin in March. CHILE – Easing to continue despite upside inflation Tradable pressures are elevated at the margin. MEXICO – Headline inflation rebounded in January Non-core inflation remained an important upside pressure. COLOMBIA – No surprises in inflation in January Inflationary pressure eases at the margin. CHILE – Large trade surplus to start 2024 Consumer imports in line with a gradual consumption recovery. MEXICO – Last minute reforms, in an election year Most reforms are unlikely to be approved, but if approved could pressure fiscal accounts. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report Inflation pressures remain elevated. COLOMBIA – Public Finance: 2024 fiscal deficit revised even higher A challenging fiscal backdrop. MEXICO – Mixed internal demand indicators in November Private consumption evolution remained resilient, while investment momentum weakened. PERU – Inflation slowed further in January Easing cycle to continue. CHILE – Activity surprises to the downside in December. Weaker carryover into 2024. CHILE – Public Finance: Reality bites Fiscal accounts deteriorated in line with our call.

CHILE – Activity indicators contracted in December We expect December IMACEC to increase by 0.7% YoY, but risks are tilted to the downside. MEXICO – Fiscal deficit widened slightly in 2023 An appreciated currency was a drag for oil and tax revenues. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: cut to 7.25% We expect the BCCh to continue to swiftly cut rates in the short term. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: cuts by 25bps Inflation dynamics will be key to the MP easing cycle. COLOMBIA – Employment dynamics weakened in 4Q23 The unemployment rate is trending up. CHILE – Unemployment surprises to the downside Annual job gains were widespread, but with a growing informality share. MEXICO – Flash GDP surprised in 4Q23 Industrial output was the main drag to activity. CHILE – What’s next in the pension reform discussion We expect further adjustments in the Senate. MEXICO – Greater trade surplus in December The trade deficit stood at USD 5.5 billion for 2023. MEXICO – Monthly GDP lost momentum in November Manufacturing and construction sectors were the main drags to activity. MEXICO – Upside headline inflation surprise Volatile fruits & vegetables in the non-core index was the main upward pressure. ARGENTINA – Activity fell sequentially in November We expect a GDP contraction of 2.5% for 2024, after an expected 1.5% contraction in 2023. ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit reached 2.9% of GDP We expect a balance primary. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview We expect the easing cycle to continue with a 100bp rate cut to 7.25%. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowing continued Commodities continued to drag exports in November. ARGENTINA – Large trade deficit in 2023 For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 20.0 million led by the recovery of the agriculture sector. COLOMBIA – Mixed activity indicators in November Manufacturing continues to trend down. PERU – Activity momentum remained soft in November Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at -0.4%. PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues Further rate cuts are likely. ARGENTINA – Inflation ended 2023 at 211% Monthly inflation to rise by double digits in 1Q24. MEXICO – IP surprised to the downside in November Construction and manufacturing were the main drags. COLOMBIA – A faster inflation fall to end 2023 Headline inflation fell to one-digit terrain. MEXICO – Internal demand in October Construction investment is still expanding at a solid pace. MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside The upside surprise was mainly driven by volatile fruits & vegetables in the non-core index. CHILE – A large trade surplus in 2023 Correction of external imbalances unfolded swiftly during 2023. CHILE – Broad-based inflation fall to end 2023 Central Bank to continue easing. CHILE – Public Finance: Our view on the 2024 Government plans on issuing USD16.5 billion, in line with our call. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Easing set to continue. MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes We expect the easing cycle to begin in March. PERU – Annual Inflation fell further in December Core inflation is now within the target range of 2+/1%. CHILE – Activity grows above expectations Mixed sentiment dynamics suggest only a moderate activity recovery ahead. CHILE – Public Finance: Deficit widened further Challenging 2023 fiscal forecasts.

CHILE – November IMACEC to rise by 0.6% YoY Activity is recovering at the margin. MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in November Manufacturing exports momentum remain soft. MEXICO – Activity cooled down in October Still, monthly GDP momentum remains positive. ARGENTINA – Activity fell sequentially in October We estimate a GDP contraction of 2.5% for 2024, after a 1.5% decline in 2023. ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit narrowed in November The effects of the stabilization package are expected to be reflected in the following prints. MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside in 1H December Non-core fruits & vegetables prices exerted upward pressure. COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in October Falling imports signal downbeat internal demand. CHILE – Monetary Policy Report The core inflation convergence is unfolding more swiftly. MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside Still, momentum is slowing. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Global developments opened the door for a step up in pace of rate cuts. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting A gradual easing cycle process is expected. MEXICO – Domestic demand slowed sequentially in 3Q Gross fixed investment was the main driver of domestic demand. CHILE – Constitutional Text is rejected again Uncertainty to linger on. COLOMBIA – Weak activity in October After a weak 3Q23, activity dynamics continue to trend down. ARGENTINA – GDP rebounded sequentially in 3Q23 The contraction in economic activity is likely to continue in 2024 with a decline of 2.5%. CHILE – December Monetary Policy Preview Accelerating the pace to 75bps. PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues Our end of next year policy rate is at 5.00%. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: still hawkish A first rate cut is likely in 1Q24. ARGENTINA – An ambitious stabilization plan In our view, the announced measures of the stabilization plan begin to address the fiscal concerns yet will lead to higher inflation in the near term. ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation accelerated in November We expect a significant acceleration of inflation in the coming months. MEXICO – Industrial production in October Construction is still the main driver of industrial production. COLOMBIA – A slow disinflation process continued Core inflation remained high and sticky at the margin. CHILE – Another large trade surplus in November Imports weakness compensated the contraction of exports during the month. CHILE – Upside inflation surprise in November Imports weakness compensated the contraction of exports during the month. COLOMBIA – CAD narrowed significantly in 3Q23 Financing of the CAD is favorable. CHILE – Non-mining activity improves in October As interest rates and inflation fall, the economy is expected to gradually recover. CHILE – Public Finance: Expenditures increased MoF’s annual fiscal target seems challenging.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment surprises to the downside The unemployment continued to fall in October. CHILE – Better-than-expected activity indicators We expect a mild recovery ahead as interest rates and inflation fall. CHILE – Unemployment rate rose sequentially The gradual deterioration of the labor market should continue in the near term. MEXICO – Current account deficit narrowed further A lower energy goods deficit outweighed softer remittances. MEXICO – Solid GDP in 3Q23 Both services and industrial sectors supported GDP in 3Q23. MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes All Board members seem open to discuss rate cuts early next year. MEXICO – 1H November Inflation was broadly Services inflation continued to ease at a gradual pace. ARGENTINA – Sequential activity rebounded in 3Q23 We see upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for this year mostly due to a better-than-expected rebound in 3Q23. ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in October Our primary fiscal deficit projection for this year stands at 3.5% of GDP. MEXICO – Retail sales momentum softened in 3Q23 Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.4%. CHILE – Another upside GDP surprise in 3Q23 The annual drag from private consumption continues to ease. CHILE – CAD narrows by 1.2pp to 3.5% of GDP Favorable FDI dynamics consolidate a more sustainable financing mix. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in 3Q23 Weak imports points to further domestic demand softening ahead. COLOMBIA – Activity weakens in 3Q23 Falling imports signal further consumption weakening ahead. PERU – Activity surprised in September Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% has a downside bias. COLOMBIA – Weak activity in 3Q23 Overall dynamics remained weak as tight monetary policy persists. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes The BCCh insists it does not target the level of the CLP. ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation eased in October We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year-end. MEXICO – Industrial production remains positive Construction weakened in September. PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues Rate cuts will likely continue. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a dovish pause We kept our call of the central bank beginning their easing cycle in May 2024. COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation in October Services inflation remains elevated. MEXICO – October inflation was broadly in line Persistent services CPI likely to reinforce Banxico’s cautious tone on the disinflation outlook. CHILE – Core consumer prices stable in October Weak core inflationary pressures at the margin. CHILE – Domestic demand supports another surplus Contractionary monetary policy supporting BoP adjustment. MEXICO – Internal demand indicators expanded Gross fixed investment posted a strong expansion. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report Inflation forecast revised higher. CHILE – A mining-led expansion in September Activity should gradually recover sequentially in the coming months. CHILE – Public Finance Cumulative fiscal deficit widens. PERU – Another large downside in October’s CPI The BCRP will likely continue easing its policy rate.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Easing likely to be pushed forward. COLOMBIA – Labor market remain strong in 3Q23 The unemployment rate has continued to trend down. CHILE – Sectorial surprised to the upside We believe activity likely bottomed out. CHILE – Better than expected labor data in Sep. Labor market slack to increase. MEXICO – Smaller fiscal deficits in 3Q23 Lower primary expenditures more than offset weaker revenues. CHILE – October Monetary Policy Meeting preview We expect a 75bps cut for October Monetary Policy Meeting. ARGENTINA – Better-than-expected activity Even though activity surprised to the upside in August, we still expect GDP to contract by 3.0% in 2023. MEXICO – Headline CPI surprised to the downside Lower volatile agricultural prices were the main downside pressure. MEXICO – Activity momentum improved in August Services and construction supported activity in the month. COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in August Imports fell again sequentially as domestic demand adjusts ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further We see downside risks to our trade deficit forecast of USD 2.0 billion for this year. MEXICO – Retail sales softened in August Real wage bill to continue supporting private consumption. PERU – Weak activity momentum in August Activity should gradually improve during the rest of the year. COLOMBIA – Activity dynamics weakened in August Contractionary monetary policy and elevated inflation help cool activity ARGENTINA – Inflation posts a record in September We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year end, and a monetary policy rate at 145%. MEXICO – MP meeting minutes with a hawkish bias Higher odds of delaying the first rate cut. MEXICO – Resilient industrial production in August Construction expanded at a strong pace while manufacturing weakened CHILE – Weak imports lead to trade surplus CAD correction to continue. COLOMBIA – Gradual disinflation process continued Annual core inflation fell to one-digit. MEXICO – Persistent services inflation Banxico unlikely to start its easing cycle this year. CHILE – An upside CPI surprise, led by volatiles Core inflationary pressures are weakening at the margin. PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues Our end-of-year policy rate forecast stands at 6.75%. MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in July Gross Fixed Investment is driven by construction investment. PERU – A downside surprise in September’s CPI The BCRP will likely continue easing its policy rate. CHILE – Widening of the fiscal deficit Second consecutive real expenditure contraction. CHILE – large negative IMACEC surprise in August A gradual sequential improvement toward yearend is our base case.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting We view the October meeting as a 50-50 call for the beginning of an easing cycle with a 25-bp cut. COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate continues to fall Labor marklet loosening expected ahead. CHILE – Mixed activity dynamics in August We believe the activity cycle is bottoming out in 3Q23. CHILE – Unemployment rate continues to rise Weakening of the labor market is consolidating. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision The Board expects a more gradual decline in inflation. MEXICO – Narrower trade deficit in August Manufacturing exports deteriorated, dragged by vehicle sales. ARGENTINA –Activity rebounded sequentially in July Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at -3.0%, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside We expect the economy to gradually slow during the rest of the year ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit improved temporarily We forecast a primary deficit of 3.0% of GDP for this year, above the 1.9% deficit targeted for 2023 in the agreement with the IMF. MEXICO – CPI broadly in line with consensus Our 2023 yearend inflation forecast stands at 4.5%. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes The Board is likely to be more sensitive to asset prices (rates, FX) in the next decisions. ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further We expect a trade deficit of USD 2.0 billion for this year. MEXICO – Positive momentum in July’s retail sales The real wage bill, main determinant of private consumption, continued to grow at a solid pace. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly in July Imports contracted as the domestic demand weakens. ARGENTINA – Severe drought dragged activity in 2Q We maintain our 2023 GDP growth forecast at -3.0%. MEXICO – Resilient domestic demand expansion in 2Q Domestic demand was mainly supported by gross fixed investment. COLOMBIA – Weaker-than-expected activity in July Activity indicators continue to lose momentum. PERU – Activity deteriorated in July The El Niño phenomenon likely to weigh on activity in 2H23. PERU – Monetary policy: a hawkish start BCRP: the decision does not necessarily imply further consecutive rate cuts ARGENTINA – CB maintained the policy rate at 118% Our monetary policy rate (Leliq) forecast stands at 145% for year-end. ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates sharply The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly following the devaluation of the currency after the primary election. MEXICO – 2024 fiscal budget: Higher fiscal deficit 2024 fiscal deficit revised up on higher spending and lower revenue. MEXICO – Industrial production expanded further Construction remains the main driver of industrial production. COLOMBIA – Another large upside inflation surprise Core inflation pressures are moderating. CHILE – Widespread downside inflation surprise We expect some payback in coming months along with increased pass-through pressures. CHILE – Monetary Policy Report Risks to the scenario stem mostly from the global macro-financial situation. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting We are penciling in cuts of 75bps for the remaining meetings of the year (to 8%). COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows further FDI financing of CAD continues to improve. PERU – Upside CPI surprise in August We still expect the central bank to begin an easing cycle this month. CHILE – Strong non-mining activity in July We foresee a further improvement in activity towards yearend.

COLOMBIA – Employment growth remains strong Employment prospects remain upbeat. CHILE – Activity dynamics remain weak in July We expect activity to remain weak in the short term. CHILE – Fiscal deficit deepened in July 2023 financing needs likely to increase. MEXICO – 2Q23 Inflation Report Odds of delaying rate cuts are increasing. CHILE – Unemployment in July quarter We expect a gradual loosening ahead. MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in July Strength in manufacturing exports likely to fade amid softer external demand. MEXICO – Current account deficit narrowed in 2Q23 Narrower energy goods trade deficit supported the improvement. MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes Odds increase of a delay in the beginning of the easing cycle. MEXICO – 1H August CPI Core services inflation still without a clear downward trend. ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in 2Q23 We maintain our GDP growth forecast at -3.0% for 2023. ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened further in July We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, below the 1.9% target agreed with the IMF for 2023. ARGENTINA – Trade deficit in line We see downside risk to our USD 1 billion trade surplus forecast for this year. CHILE – A smaller-than-expected GDP fall in 2Q23 Private Consumption has adjusted. CHILE – Current account deficit narrows further FDI dynamics support a more sustainable financing mix. MEXICO – Upside surprise in June’s retail sales The real wage bill is supporting private consumption. COLOMBIA – The economy fell sequentially in 2Q23 The import and investment contractions reflect weaker domestic demand. ARGENTINA – Further deterioration in inflation The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly, and will likely exceed our inflation forecast of 160% by December. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in 2Q23 Double-digit declines in imports persist. PERU – Soft activity momentum in 2Q23 Harsh weather conditions and social conflicts curbed GDP in 1H23. COLOMBIA – Activity weakened in 2Q23 Softening domestic demand supports lower rates ahead. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Swifter CLP appreciation pass-through supported lower rate trajectory. MEXICO – industrial production upside surprise Solid construction sector growth supported industrial production. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision The Board remains cautious on the disinflationary process. COLOMBIA – CPI above consensus in July Sequential core inflation pressures moderated further. MEXICO – Lower inflation in July We expect Banxico’s policy rate to remain on hold at 11.25% this week. CHILE – Inflation falls 1.1pp to 6.5% in July Swift disinflation process leaves door open for another 100bp rate cut. CHILE – A lower-than-expected, trade surplus The domestic demand adjustment, amid contractionary monetary policy is supporting a narrowing of external imbalances. MEXICO – Investment supported internal demand Construction investment expanded at a strong pace. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report Scenario does not consider the materialization of an “El Niño” phenomenon. PERU – Lower inflation in July Higher odds of BCRP cutting its policy rate before 4Q23. CHILE – Non-mining activity falls sequentially In the short-term, we expect activity to remain weak, with activity bottoming out in 3Q23.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Rising risks that rate cuts unfold later this year. COLOMBIA – Downside unemployment surprise in June Private salaried jobs continued to drive employment dynamics. CHILE – Mining rebound offsets core activity Quarterly sequential activity dynamics weakened in 2Q. CHILE – Real expenditure growth decelerated Revenue contraction slowed materially, aided by base effects. MEXICO – Fiscal accounts deteriorated in 1H23 A strong peso and lower oil prices are curbing fiscal revenues. MEXICO – Another solid GDP expansion in 2Q23 Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 2.7% has an upward bias. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting A larger than expected cut to begin the cycle. CHILE – Unemployment surprised to the downside The job creation subsidy is likely sustaining employment resilience. MEXICO – Sequential activity slipped in May Our 2023 GDP growth forecast stands at 2.7%. MEXICO – Bi-weekly inflation prints in line We expect inflation to end the year at 4.5%. ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in 2Q23 We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, below the target agreed upon with the IMF for 2023 (1.9% of GDP). MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside Our GDP growth forecast stands at 2.7%. ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further in June We recently revised our trade balance forecast down to a surplus of USD 1.0 billion for this year, due to the worse-than-expected deterioration of the external accounts. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in May Imports fall as domestic demand adjusts. ARGENTINA – Activity fell again in May Better-than-expected activity in 1Q23 led to the downward revision of our expectation for a contraction this year, from 4% to 3%. PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in May Activity momentum remained weak. COLOMBIA – Activity slowdown continued in May Activity indicators continued to lose momentum. ARGENTINA – Inflation slowed in June Given the high volatility, we recently lowered our year-end inflation forecast to 160%, from 175%. MEXICO – Industrial production surprised Construction sector rebounded, while manufacturing output deteriorated. COLOMBIA – A downside inflation surprise in June Food prices are swiftly correcting, but El Niño risks loom. CHILE – A larger-than-expected trade surplus CAD correction to continue. CHILE – Another large downside inflation surprise Inflationary pressures at the margin are falling swiftly. MEXICO – June CPI broadly in line We expect rate cuts in 4Q23. MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes Board members are cautious of the disinflationary process. CHILE – Monetary Policy meeting Minutes Expect divided decisions ahead. MEXICO – Internal demand momentum remains positive Machinery & equipment investment is the main driver of GFI. CHILE – Spending accelerates and Revenues fall Spending pressures and weak revenues will test fiscal accounts this year. PERU – Inflation surprised to the downside in June Downside pressure to the headline figure came mainly from lower food prices. CHILE – Non-mining activity flat sequentially Activity during 2Q23 will likely post a notable decline.

ARGENTINA – Activity declined in April We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals. COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting The bar is high for rate cuts to occur this year. COLOMBIA – Employment growth remained upbeat Private and self-employment drive job creation. ARGENTINA – Wide current account deficit in 1Q23 We forecast a current account deficit of 1.5% of GDP for 2023, but the risks are tilted to a wider deficit. CHILE – Mining drags activity in May Tight monetary policy and reduced household savings to sustain weak activity ahead. CHILE – Unemployment surprised to the downside The sequential improvement in the labor market is unlikely to persist. MEXICO – Stable trade balance in May Manufacturing exports’ positive momentum is unlikely to persist amid a softer external scenario. MEXICO – Solid monthly GDP expansion in April Services sector is the main driver of activity. ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit was unchanged in May. We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, which is worse than the target agreed upon with the IMF for 2023. ARGENTINA – GDP expanded in 1Q23 We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and the fragile macro fundamentals. MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision Rate cuts are unlikely before 4Q23. MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprised Inflation figure is supportive of rate cuts in 4Q23. ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened in May We see downward risk to our trade balance forecast of a surplus of USD 3.5 billion for this year. COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in April Imports fall as domestic demand weakens. MEXICO – Solid domestic demand expansion in 1Q23 Private sector was the main driver of domestic demand. CHILE – Monetary Policy Report A swifter disinflation path. MEXICO – Retail sales recovered in April Real wage bill, main private consumption determinant, remains resilient. CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 50-bp rate cut Better inflation readings are the missing piece to trigger more decisive monetary easing. COLOMBIA – Activity surprises to the downside Activity is contracting from last year. COLOMBIA – A challenging fiscal consolidation path Government’s financing needs revised up. PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in April El Niño weather phenomenon curbs activity in April. ARGENTINA – Inflation remains high We recently raised our inflation forecast for this year to 175% from 125%, as we now expect a meaningful official real exchange rate depreciation before the end of this year. MEXICO – Soft industrial production momentum Strong sequential expansion in manufacturing output in April is unlikely to last. CHILE – A volatiles-led downside inflation surprise Core inflation falling from high levels. COLOMBIA – Another downside inflation surprise Core inflation has likely peaked. CHILE – Another large trade surplus in May The lithium pull eases. MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in 1Q23 GFI expansion is driven by machinery & equipment investment. COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 1Q23 CAD financing is healthy. PERU – Annual inflation eased slightly in May We expect inflation at 4.0% end of this year. MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes None of the board members gave a clear indication of when will Banxico assess cutting rates. CHILE – Core activity falls sequentially in April Commerce activity trends down.

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