Economic reports
Brazil
Analysis on Brazilian economic themes published by the Central Bank, the statistics institute IBGE, among others
LatAm
Analysis on economic indicators from other Latam countries covered by Itaú's economic research team
Global
Current macroeconomic outlook for the global economy
Specific Reports
BRAZIL: What will foreign trade look like under the 2nd Trump administration?
01/2025 | In this study, we assess potential impacts for Brazil on different sectors and commodities stemming from Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs.
BRAZIL: Interest rate cycles in Brazil
01/2025 | This study analyzes 15 interest rate cycles since October 2002 to identify recurrences and patterns in monetary policy decisions.
BRAZIL: The fundamental fiscal policy questions of 2025
01/2025 | This report is a guide to the biggest fiscal events and debates of 2025.
Fiscal dominance in Brazil: Where do we stand?
Recent stress and rise in risk premium suggest that we are not in full normality and reinforce the need for measures that improve fiscal perception.
BRAZIL: Time to strengthen the fiscal framework
01/2025 | A sustained improvement in financial conditions would only materialize with the outlook for a more balanced public debt trajectory.
CHILE: Pension Reform – Is this time different?
01/2025 | Reform discussions appear to lose momentum.
BRAZIL: We forecast GDP growth of 0.6% qoq/sa in 3Q24
11/2024 | GDP slowed down in 3Q24 to 0.6%QoQ.
PERU: A balanced economy set for higher growth
Fiscal consolidation should continue next year.
Freight prices to Brazil: reasons for recent fluctuations and what to expect ahead
11/2024 | Freight prices in Brazil are likely to recede, but these are unlikely to experience a complete normalization to the levels observed in 23.
BRAZIL: Potential impacts of the drought in Brazil on GDP and inflation
10/2024 | If the drought persists until the end of the year, we may face delays in soybean planting and in the planting of the second corn crop.
GLOBAL: Labor market and impact on inflation in DM countries
09/2024 | The rebalancing of the labor market points to lower inflationary pressures down the road, creating room for greater monetary policy easing.
BRAZIL: Estimating the indirect impact of basic goods on CPI
09/2024 | These indirect effects, can far exceed the direct effect determined by their weight in the household consumption basket.
BRAZIL: We expect GDP growth of 1.0% qoq/sa in 2Q24
08/2024 | Economy remained strong in 2Q24 due to higher household income, advancing 1.0% qoq/sa (2.8% yoy).
CHILE: Tightening the screws on the fiscal framework
08/2024 | Medium-term fiscal challenges linger.
Online betting: Different metrics & evaluations
08/2024 | Building on our study Macro Vision: Online betting, we present three possible definitions for the sector and our corresponding estimates.
Imports from China on the rise: relevant aspects
08/2024 |In our view, the recent increase in imports underscores the need to advance with agendas aimed at improving the domestic business environment
Online betting: Estimated size and impacts
08/2024 | Based on the balance of payments, we estimate net spending on betting at BRL 24 billion per year.
Idat-Cars: The Itaú car price index
08/2024 | This report presents the Itaú Car Price Index (Idat-Cars), Itau’s proprietary index of automotive prices.
Venezuela Primer: A presidential election that sparks hope in a weary land
07/2024 | Time for change?
BRAZIL: Inflation in the relevant horizon: simulating the Central Bank’s model
07/2024 | This paper discusses the most important updates in the small-scale model of the BCB and simulates alternative scenarios based on the model.
COLOMBIA: Public Finance: Revenue blues
07/2024 | Testing the limits of the fiscal rule.
iSent: Itaú’s Central Bank sentiment classifier
07/2024 | This report presents the iSent, the Itaú’s Central Bank sentiment index for Brazil and Chile, a sentiment classifier based on GPT-4.
CHILE: Consumption non-performing loans
07/2024 | Consumption NPLs are projected to gradually decline.
CHILE: An update on Chile’s fiscal dynamics
06/2024 | Financing needs remain elevated.
MEXICO: A challenging fiscal outlook
06/2024 | Social programs are likely to make fiscal consolidation hard.
US Dollar: Dominance at Risk?
06/2024 | This is the second in a series of two articles that seek to explain the US dollar's recent strength and future prospects.
Strong Dollar scenario likely to persist and could intensify
06/2024 | This is the first in a series of two articles that seek to explain the recent strength of the dollar and prospects for the currency.
BRAZIL: We expect 0.7% GDP growth in 1Q24
05/2024 | Brazilian GDP should expand 0.7% in 1Q24. The 1Q24 GDP report will be released next Tuesday, June 4.
BRAZIL: Revisiting estimates for the neutral interest rate
05/2024 | Based on different methodologies, we reevaluate estimates of neutral real interest in Brazil
BRAZIL: The weight of wages: a core measure that reweights the IPCA
05/2024 | We reweighted the IPCA according to the labor intensity of each item in order to see the impact of the tight labor market on inflation.
Other products
Presentations
Monthly presentation with the economic outlook in Brazil and abroad.
Economic Series
Specific economic indicators created by Itaú's economic team.
Forecasts
Up-to-date forecasts for Brazil, Latam and the global economy.
Our team
Mario Mesquita
Chief Economist at Itaú Unibanco, holds a doctorate degree in Economics from Oxford and was Deputy Governor for the BCB.
Fernando Gonçalves
Head of the sell-side area in the Macroeconomic research team, holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, in Berkeley.
Julia Gottlieb
Responsible for economic analysis of Brazil and service to the conglomerate. Has a master's degree in economics from PUC-RJ.
Pedro Schneider
Responsible for economic analysis for the treasury desk, international scenario, politics and fiscal policy in BR. Has a master's degree in economics.
Andres Perez Morales
Is responsible for covering Latin American economies, ex-Brazil. MBA, MPP, BA Economics all from the University of Chicago.
Thiago Macruz
Responsible for research coverage of Brazilian companies, holds a bachelor in economics by the University of São Paulo.
