The current account showed a surplus of USD 1.0 billion in 4Q24, up from a deficit of USD 2.7 billion in the same quarter of 2023, led by a large goods surplus. Thus, the current account improved to a surplus of 1.0% of GDP in 2024 from a deficit of 3.3% of GDP in 2023.
A large goods trade surplus in 4Q24. Exports increased by 32.0%, driven by higher agriculture sales after a severe drought in same period 2023, while imports rose by 6.3% yoy. Thus, the goods trade balance printed at a USD 4.9 billion surplus in the period, up from a surplus of USD 0.8 billion in the same quarter of 2023. On the other hand, the service account deficit widened to USD 1.6 billion, from -USD 0.8 billion one year earlier due to a deterioration of the travel accounts amid a stronger ARS. The deficit for the income balance (net interest bill and dividend payments) narrowed to USD 2.9 billion, from a deficit of USD 3.1 billion in 4Q23.
International reserves increased by USD 6.1 billion during 2024, mostly reflecting the above-mentioned current account surplus. External debt stood at USD 276.1 billion in 4Q24 (44.0% of GDP), down from USD 287.8 billion in 4Q23 (45.1% of GDP).
Our take: We forecast a current account deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2025, down from a surplus of 1.0% of GDP in 2024, reflecting a lower trade surplus and a larger travel account deficit amid the expected GDP growth and a stronger ARS.
Andrés Pérez M.
Diego Ciongo
Soledad Castagna