The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 1.0 billion in September, well above the USD 0.7 billion deficit registered in the same month of 2023. The surplus was below market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 1.3 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 15.1 billion in September, from USD 13.3 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 17.9 billion in September, from a surplus of USD 22.2 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in 3Q24, driven by the normalization of the agricultural sector, after last year’s severe drought. Total exports rose by 18.2% yoy in the third quarter, following a 18.2% gain in 2Q24. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, expanded by 20.6% yoy in the period (from 22.0% yoy in 2Q24). Exports of other industrial products rose by 11.0% yoy in the same period, led by metals (up from an increase of 1.5% yoy in 2Q24). On a sequential basis, exports fell by 2.8% qoq/saar in September.
Imports contracted in 3Q24, amid a weaker currency and soft activity. Total imports fell by 17.9% yoy in 3Q24 (from a drop of 30.4% yoy in 2Q24). However, imports rebounded by 40.5% qoq/saar in the period. Imports of intermediate goods fell by 19.6% yoy in the period, while imports of capital goods decreased by 21.0% yoy, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) increased 11.9% yoy.
The energy trade surplus widened further in September. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 4.7 billion in September, from a surplus of USD 4.2 billion in the previous month and only USD 0.1 billion in 2023. Energy imports plummeted by 33.5% yoy in 3Q24, while oil exports rose by 26.2% yoy in the same period.
Our take. Our trade balance surplus forecast for 2024 stands at USD 17.0 billion, significantly above the USD 6.9 billion deficit registered in 2023 driven by the normalization of the agricultural sector after lower imports amid a weaker currency. For 2025 we still expect a surplus of USD 12 billion driven by lower commodity prices and higher imports consistent with a recovery in economic activity.
Andrés Pérez M.
Diego Ciongo
Soledad Castagna