Following Milei’s first year in office, confidence in the administration remains stable at around 53.1% in December, essentially unchanged from 53.3% in November. According to the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella’s monthly survey, confidence in the government fell slightly by 0.3% MoM in December. As a result, confidence in the government is only 7.1% below its peak when the government took office in December 2023.
Mixed behavior across the components: The “capacity to solve problems in the country” rose by 2% MoM. The "honesty of public officials" was little changed, falling slightly by 0.2% MoM, while the "General evaluation of the government" fell by 1.0% MoM, the "Efficiency in the management of public spending" decreased by 1.1% MoM and the "concern for the general interest" contracted by 2.0% MoM. Thus, we noted that after one year in office, the government achieved higher support compared to the previous four administrations.
Positive economic outlook. According to the survey, 83.6% of those surveyed expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months (85.2% in the previous survey). On the other hand, 43.6% see no change (45.8% before) and 10.4% expect the economic situation to worsen (9.2% last month).
Our take: Confidence in Milei's administration has remained strong, despite the significant macro adjustment. Activity has begun to snap back sequentially as inflation has continued to decelerate, amid a significant narrowing of the spread between the official and parallel exchange rate markets and strict control of fiscal spending.