According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices rose by 2.4% MoM in February, up from 2.2% MoM in January. The print was slightly above the central bank survey median of 2.3% MoM. On an annual basis, inflation declined to 66.9%, from 84.5% in January helped by an annual base effect. Annualized quarterly inflation in February rose to 33.4%, up from 33.2% in the previous month.
The monthly core measure rose by 2.9% MoM in February, accelerating from the previous month (2.4% MoM) driven by higher meat prices. Moreover, the annual core reading fell to 60.4%, down from 75.0% in January. Prices for regulated products increased by 2.3% MoM and 109.5% YoY, led by higher energy tariffs and fuels. Finally, prices for seasonal products decreased by 0.8% MoM due to lower tomatoes prices, with the annual reading falling to 47.6% in February, from 61.8% in the previous month.
Our take: We expect the disinflation process to resume in the coming months with headline inflation falling to 25% by year-end, well below the 117.8% yoy inflation in YE24. The INDEC will release CPI for the month of March on April 11.
Andrés Pérez M.
Diego Ciongo
Soledad Castagna