According to the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella’s monthly survey, confidence in the government fell at the margin by 1.8% mom to 51.1% in February, after falling 1.9% in January. As a result, while confidence in the government remains high, it is 10.6% below the peak where it was when the government took office in December 2023. Importantly, the survey was made between February 3 and February 13, before the cryptocurrency scandal on February 14.
Most of the components fell in February: Ratings for “capacity to solve problems in the country” fell by 1.0% MoM, the “honesty of public officials” contracted by 1.1% MoM, the “concern for the general interest” fell by 7.2% mom and “general evaluation of the government” dropped by 3.0% MoM. On the other hand, the rating for “efficiency in the management of public expenditure‘ increased by 1.9% MoM.
Positive economic outlook. According to the survey, 81.8% of respondents expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months (81.0% in the previous survey). On the other hand, 45.6% see no change (46% previously) and 9.6% expect the economy to get worse (7.4% last month).
Our take: Confidence in Milei’s government remains high, despite the decline in the first two months of the year. The next government confidence report (due on March 24) will be key to monitoring the impact of the cryptocurrency scandal on government support. Maintaining a high approval rating is key for President Milei and his deregulation agenda, given his minority position in Congress, especially with midterm elections looming in October.