Consumer prices rose by 4.6% MoM in June, below market expectations of 5.2%, according to the latest central bank’s survey. On a monthly basis, inflation in June was slightly above May’s 4.2% print. Annualized quarterly inflation in June fell to 98.3% during the 2Q24, from 151.9% in the quarter ending in May. On an annual basis, inflation declined slightly to 271.5%, from 276.4% in May.
The monthly core measure stood at 3.7% MoM in June (same figure as the previous month), bringing the year-over-year reading to 267.2% in June, down from 277.3% in May. Prices for regulated products increased by 8.1% MoM and 327.1% YoY, led by electricity and fuel prices. Finally, prices for seasonal products increased by 4.4% MoM (from 7.2% in the previous month) and 225.2% YoY.
Our heatmap shows that 92% of selected items (on a month-on-month basis) rose by single-digits in June, down from 100% in the previous month and only 8% in December 2023.
Our Take: The stabilization program continues to deliver better-than-expected results on the nominal adjustment of the economy. In this context, consistent downside surprises to inflation, a stronger ARS, and weaker activity led us to lower our inflation forecast to 130% for YE24 (from 140%).
Andrés Pérez M.
Soledad Castagna