According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices rose by 3.5% MoM in September, down from 4.2% MoM in the previous month. The print was in line with our forecast and market expectations, according to the latest central bank’s survey (both at 3.5% mom). Thus, the monthly reading was the lowest since YE21, likely helped by one-off effects of import tariffs reductions. Annualized quarterly inflation in September fell to 58.1% during the quarter ended in that month, down from 64.9% in the previous month. On an annual basis, inflation declined to 209.0%, from 236.7% in August.
The monthly core measure increased by 3.3% MoM in September, marking a deceleration from the previous month (4.1% MoM). Moreover, the year-over-year reading fell to 198.1%, from 227.5% in August. Prices for regulated products increased by 4.5% MoM and 294.1% YoY, led by higher energy tariffs. Finally, prices for seasonal products increased by 2.9% MoM and 167.7% YoY.
Our take: Our inflation forecast for YE24 is 125%. In our view, the continuation of the crawling peg policy (leading to a significant real appreciation of the ARS) should contribute to the disinflation process in the coming months, adding downside risks to our inflation forecast. In our view, the government's target is monthly inflation starting at "2", similar to the crawling peg policy, in order to avoid further real appreciation of the ARS. INDEC will publish the October CPI on 12 November.
Andrés Pérez M.
Diego Ciongo
Soledad Castagna