Exports increased in the quarter ended in February. Total exports rose by 17.5% yoy in the period, following a 31.7% gain in 4Q24. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, expanded by 13.2% yoy in the period (from 42.8% yoy in 4Q24). Exports of other industrial products rose by 20.1% yoy in the same period, led by ground transportation (down from an increase of 21.3% yoy in 4Q24). On a sequential basis, exports rose by 7.6% qoq/saar in February.
Imports rose in the quarter ended in February, in line with the recovery of activity and a stronger currency. Total imports rose by 30.8% yoy in the period (from a gain of 7.5% yoy in 4Q24) and by 46.8% qoq/saar in February. Imports of capital goods increased by 48.2% yoy in the quarter ended in February, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) rose by 69.1% yoy. Moreover, imports of intermediate goods rose by 6.9% yoy in the period, from a drop of 2.7% yoy in 4Q24.
The energy trade surplus remains flat in February. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 6.0 billion in February, unchanged from the previous month and slightly above USD 5.7 billion in 2024. Energy imports plummeted by 23.8% yoy in February, while oil exports rose by 26.4% yoy in the same period.
Our take: For 2025 we expect a trade surplus of USD 12.0 billion (from USD 18.9 billion in 2024) driven by lower commodity prices and higher imports consistent with a recovery in economic activity and a stronger currency.
Andrés Pérez M.
Diego Ciongo
Soledad Castagna