The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 0.3 billion in March, well below the USD 2.1 billion surplus registered in the same month of 2024. The surplus was below market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 0.9 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 15.2 billion in March, down from USD 17.1 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 6.0 billion in March, from a surplus of USD 8.2 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in 1Q25. Total exports rose by 5.3% yoy in the period, following a 31.7% gain in 4Q24. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, expanded by 1.0% yoy in the period (from 42.8% yoy in 4Q24). Exports of other industrial products rose by 14.9% yoy in the same period, led by ground transportation (down from an increase of 21.3% yoy in 4Q24). On a sequential basis, exports fell by 6.8% qoq/saar in March.
Imports rose in 1Q25, in line with the recovery of activity and a stronger currency. Total imports rose by 34.8% yoy in the period (from a gain of 7.5% yoy in 4Q24) and by 44.7% qoq/saar in March. Imports of capital goods increased by 48.9% yoy in the quarter ended in March, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) rose by 68.9% yoy. Moreover, imports of intermediate goods rose by 9.9% yoy in the period, from a drop of 2.7% yoy in 4Q24.
The energy trade surplus narrowed in March. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 5.8 billion in March, slightly below USD 6.0 billion in the previous month. Energy imports rose by 71.6% yoy in March, while oil exports fell by 13.5% yoy in the same period.
Our take: For 2025 we expect a trade surplus of USD 12.0 billion (down from USD 18.9 billion in 2024) driven by lower commodity prices and higher imports consistent with a recovery in economic activity and a stronger currency.