The trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 1.9 billion in June, well above the USD 1.8 billion deficit registered in the same month of 2023. The surplus was above market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 1.6 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 8.3 billion in June, from USD 4.5 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 23.7 billion in June, from a surplus of USD 21.6 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in 2Q24, driven by the normalization of the agricultural sector after last year’s severe drought. Total exports rose by 18.2% yoy in 2Q24, after a 9.5% gain in 1Q24. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, expanded by 22.0% yoy in the period (from a gain of 17.5% yoy in 1Q24). Exports of other industrial products rose by 1.3% yoy in the same period, up from a drop of 9.1% yoy in 1Q24. On a sequential basis, exports rose by 22.5% qoq/saar in June.
Imports fell again, amid a weaker currency and soft activity. Total imports fell by 30.1% yoy in 2Q24 (from a drop of 22.9% yoy in 1Q24), down 19.1% qoq/saar in the period. Imports of intermediate goods fell by 29.1% yoy in the period, and imports of capital goods decreased by 27.9% yoy, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) decreased 23.7% yoy.
Energy trade surplus widened in June. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 3.6 billion in June, from a surplus of USD 3.2 billion in the previous month and only USD 0.1 billion in 2023. Energy imports plummeted by 43.5% yoy in 2Q24, while oil exports rose by 44.4% yoy in the same period.
Our Take. We foresee that the trade surplus will persist in the coming months, driven by import compression and the normalization of agricultural exports. The rapid improvement of external imbalances is indicative of the effectiveness of the macro stabilization program. For 2024, we project a trade surplus of USD 15 billion, representing a significant turnaround from the USD 6.9 billion deficit recorded in 2023.