The trade balance showed a surplus of USD 2.7 billion in May, well above the USD 1.1 billion deficit registered in the same month of 2023. The surplus was above market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 2.0 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 4.7 billion in May, from USD 0.9 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 21.4 billion in May, from a surplus of USD 18.4 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in the quarter ended in May, driven by the normalization of the agricultural sector after last year’s severe drought. Total exports rose by 15.3% yoy in the quarter ended in May, after a 9.5% gain in 1Q24. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, expanded by 20.6% yoy in the period (from a gain of 17.5% yoy in 1Q24). Exports of other industrial products fell by 4.9% yoy in the same period (from a drop of 9.1% yoy in 1Q24. On a sequential basis, exports rose by 38.6% qoq/saar in May.
Imports fell again, amid a weaker currency and soft activity. Total imports fell by 31.1% yoy in the quarter ended in May (from a drop of 24.4% yoy in 1Q24), down 21.7% qoq/saar in the period. Imports of intermediate goods fell by 28.9% yoy in the period, and imports of capital goods and parts decreased by 26.3% yoy, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) decreased 22.0% yoy.
Energy trade surplus widened in May. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 3.2 billion in May, from a surplus of USD 2.3 billion in the previous month and only USD 0.1 billion in 2023. Energy imports plummeted by 62.0% yoy in the quarter ended in May, while oil exports rose by 46.0% yoy in the same period.
Our Take. We expect the trade surplus to continue in the coming months, driven by import compression and the normalization of agricultural exports. The swift improvement of external imbalances is another reflection that the macro stabilization program is delivering results. For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 15 billion, from a deficit of USD 6.9 billion in 2023.