After several months of weaker dynamics, mining surged 6.8% MoM/SA leading to a 11.5% YoY increase. The sequential increase was the sharpest registered since September 2023 and boosted by improved copper ore-grade. Mining rose 4.4% YoY in 2024, the first annual increase since 2020. Mining production levels ended the year at levels last seen in 2018. Manufacturing also increased 2.8% MoM/SA, and 8.4% YoY (well above the Bloomberg consensus of 2.2% and our 2% call). Manufacturing was lifted by food processing. During 2024, manufacturing increased 2,6%, recovering from the 0.1% decline in 2022. Retail sales, including vehicles, increased 5.8% YoY, similar to November, and above our 4.3% and the 5.5% Bloomberg median, lifted by apparel and electronic goods amid widescale sales events and a boom in foreign tourism. Real retail sales last year increased 3.9% (partially offsetting the 6.7% drop in 2022).
Retail sales momentum improved during 4Q24. Total retail sales increased by 5.4% during the quarter (4% in 3Q), with durable retail sales rising 7.4% YoY and non-durable goods increasing 4.9%. Separately, total industrial production rose 3.1% in the quarter (2.1% in 3Q). Manufacturing growth came in at 4.1% (2.7% in 3Q), while mining rose an elevated 6.1% (4.3% in 3Q). In seasonally adjusted terms, retail sales increased 9.9% (-0.1% in 3Q), while manufacturing rose 3.1% QoQ/saar.
Our Take: The upbeat end to the year leads us to expect a 3.6% YoY increase for Imacec (to be released on Monday; 2.1% in November), resulting in 2.3% annual growth for 2023 (in line with the BCCh’s IPoM forecast). With imports of capital goods continuing to recover and consumer tourism persisting, the activity carryover into 2025 may exceed our expectations and place an upside risk to our 1.9% growth call. Of note, flows of consumer credit from the banking system in December edged even higher (22.6% YoY, 3mma). Nevertheless, soft job creation, borrowing costs above pre-covid levels, and elevated inflation may limit a faster recovery.
