The USD 1.9 billion trade surplus in March was a tick below our USD 2 billion call. Exports rose 5.5% YoY in March, lifted by manufacturing, while mining was up 3.1%. Lithium exports continue to shrink significantly (-35% YoY). Import growth continued to build momentum, rising 11.1% YoY in March, lifted by consumer goods (17.5% YoY) and capital goods (11.7%). Energy imports continued to contract. The rolling 12-month balance sits at an elevated USD 21 billion (near 7% of GDP). The annualized quarterly trade balance sits just under USD 20 billion (SA).
Export momentum was upbeat prior to the global tariff shock. During 1Q25, exports increased 5.9% YoY (11% in 4Q24), and 20% sequentially (QoQ/SA, annualized; -5.5% in 4Q24). Total imports rose 8.3% in 1Q25 (6.8% in 4Q24), and 17% at the margin (QoQ/SA, annualized; 21.5% in 4Q24).
Our Take: Import dynamics are in line with recovering domestic demand, yet the spike in global uncertainty will likely dent import demand ahead, while being partly compensated by even lower oil prices. On the export front, a sharp slowdown in both the US and China will hamper demand for copper and, on net, should lead to a lower trade surplus. The CAD closed at a low 1.5% last year. Chile's goods exports to the US account for roughly 17% of total exports, while imports from the US totaled 19%. During the 1Q, a USD 0.6 billion surplus was recorded with the USA (USD 0.8 billion surplus in 2024).
