The current account posted a USD 12.6 billion (2.9% of GDP) surplus in the 4Q24, higher than the Bloomberg’s market consensus of USD 9.2 bn and close to the surplus in 4Q23 (USD 11.7 bn). Compared to 4Q23, the current account balance reflected a higher surplus within the trade balance, as well as strong remittances, although with slightly larger outflows in dividends and interests. As a result, the current account closed 2024 with a deficit of USD 6.0 bn, equivalent to -0.3% of GDP (same as in 2023).
On the other hand, the financial account registered a net lending flow of USD 15.1 bn in the 4Q24. By accounts, the net balance of the direct investment account was USD 500 mm, while portfolio investment had a net inflow of USD 6.5 bn, and other investments and reserves assets accounted for USD 7.6 bn and USD 2.4 bn, respectively. Financial derivatives posted a net outflow of USD 1.9 bn. Finally, the errors and omissions account closed the balance of payments with a net balance of USD 2.5 bn. Consequently, the financial account resulted in outflows of USD 3.5 USD bn, equivalent to -0.2% of GDP.
Our view: In a context of possible changes in the trade policy within the US, we expect uncertainty and volatility to persist during the year and impact the balance of payments in 2025. For instance, we anticipate that investment decisions are likely to take a wait-and-see approach for some time, affecting FDI at least in the first half of 2025. Our current account forecast for 2025 is a deficit of 0.6% of GDP, with a trade deficit of USD 15 bn.
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