The trade balance in November surprised with a deficit of USD 133 million, while Bloomberg’s market consensus was a surplus of USD 500 million. On a 12-month rolling basis, the trade deficit reached USD 6.5 billion in November (from a deficit of USD 5.8 billion in October and a deficit of USD 5.5 billion in 2023). At the margin, using three-month annualized seasonally adjusted figures, the trade balance stood at a deficit of USD 4.0 billion in November. Looking at the breakdown, the non-oil trade balance continued to improve at the margin (USD 8.3 billion surplus vs USD 11.0 billion deficit for oil).
Our view: A weaker currency along with expectations of outperformance of the U.S. economy should continue to support manufacturing exports during the next months. Weaker internal demand and a deceleration of construction should curb non-energy consumption and capital imports used mainly for non-residential edification. Institutional uncertainties and tariffs threats will also impact trade flows ahead.
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