Economic activity grew 0.72% YoY in October, close to our estimate (0.78%) and higher than Bloomberg’s market consensus (0.40%). By sectors, services increased 2.7% YoY, with 11 out of 14 subsectors improving supported by solid fundamentals. Industry decreased 2.2% YoY, reaching a three-month low. The drag came from mining and construction, partly on a negative base effect. The primary sector remained weak at -4.8% YoY, consistent with rainy weather. Considering seasonal adjusted figures, the economy contracted by 0.73% MoM (IGAE nowcast at -0.6% MoM). By sectors, the industrial sector fell 1.2% MoM due to supply shocks that mainly affected manufacturing. Services did not change substantially but contributed to 0.03 pp to the monthly figure. Primary activities decreased 2.6% MoM, from +1.3% in September.
Our view: Today’s IGAE showed a deceleration, but the outcome is not that bad when taking into consideration supply shocks (hurricanes, closure of roads near ports and strikes in the U.S.) along with some negative base effects. Finally, given that the figure matched our estimate, we maintain our call of 1.7% full-year GDP growth. We forecast +1.5% in 2025.
