According to INEGI, the unemployment rate stood at 2.43% in non-seasonally adjusted terms in December, a bit below Bloomberg’s market consensus of 2.54%. Using seasonally adjusted data, the unemployment rate came in at 2.59% in December (from 2.69% in November and 2.78% a year ago). For 2024, the average unemployment rate fell to 2.67%, the lowest ever, mainly explained by the greater employment of the population with fewer years of schooling.
As seen in past years, the end of temporary jobs resulted in a decline of employed people of 684 thousand. In this backdrop, the labor participation rate stood at 59.3%, falling from November (60.0%). For 2024, the labor participation rate reached 60.1%, a little higher than the pre-pandemic average of 59.91%. As for wages, the wage bill in real terms increased 3.0% YoY, after 4.1% in November. Despite this deceleration at the margin, in 2024 the real wage bill rose 5.6% YoY, substantially above from the 2012-2019 average of 2.5%.
Our take: We expect job creation to continue this year, although at a slower pace due to a projected deceleration in economic activity. In addition, the real wage bill should continue to increase at the margin, with a positive effect on consumption, but also limiting any additional significant services disinflation ahead.
