According to INEGI, the unemployment rate stood at 2.70% in non-seasonally adjusted terms in January, in line with Bloomberg’s market consensus and our forecast. Using seasonally adjusted data, the unemployment rate came in at 2.61% in January (from 2.60% in December and 2.75% a year ago), which is the lowest ever for the first month of the year, mainly explained by higher employment for people with fewer years of schooling.
The employed people increased by 123k in January, with a contraction of 249K people in the formal sector and an increase of 372K in the informal sector. Hence, the labor participation rate stood at 59.4%, a bit higher than December (59.3%) and the pre-pandemic average for a similar month (59.1%). The year started with an increase in informality, to 54.2%, from 53.7% in December, but still oscillating around a downward trend. As for wages, the wage bill in real terms increased 3.6% YoY, following +3.0% in December.
Our take: Looking ahead, we anticipate that job creation to continue this year, albeit at a slower rate due to the expected slowdown in economic activity. We forecast unemployment rate to continue at low levels, with an average of 2.8% in 2025 from 2.7% in 2024. In addition, the real wage is expected to keep rising gradually, supporting consumption, while also constraining any further substantial disinflation in the coming months.
