GDP rose by 3.5% yoy in 4Q24 (IMAE +3.6% yoy), down from 4.4% in 3Q24. At the margin, using the central bank's seasonally adjusted series, GDP grew by 0.1% qoq/sa in 4Q24, decelerating from the previous quarter yet rising sequentially for the sixth consecutive quarter. GDP expanded by 3.1% in 2024, reflecting the recovery of the primary sector after the severe drought in 2023. Thus, the statistical carryover for 2025 stood at 1.0%.
Most of the sectors expanded in 4Q24, except by communication and transportation. On the supply side, the annual print was mainly driven by manufacturing (15.2% yoy, incidence of 1.5 pp) driven by higher oil refinery and cellulose production. The energy sector grew 14.4% yoy reflecting the normalization of activity after a severe drought in the same period of 2023 (incidence of 0.3 pp) and the financial services grew by 5.5% yoy (incidence of 0.3 p.p). The livestock and agriculture sector expanded by 2.2% in 4Q24 with an incidence of 0.2 p.p, due to higher rice production, such as the sowing of summer crops, and higher live exports and cattle births, partially offset by lower cattle slaughtering. The trade sector expanded by 0.8% yoy (with a contribution of 0.1 pp) favored by the positive performance of accommodation services and food and beverage services, to the boost in both external and domestic demand. The only sector that fell was communication and transportation, which was down 0.3% yoy in 4Q24 due to a decline in telecommunication services and IT.
Domestic demand expanded in 4Q24. Domestic demand rose by 3.3% yoy in 4Q24 (0.6% in 3Q24), led by gross capital formation which rose by 5.5% yoy. Private consumption expanded by 2.7% yoy, due to higher spending on imported consumer goods such as clothing and other durable goods, which was partially offset by a reduction in tourism spending abroad. Moreover, public consumption rose by 3.3% yoy. Finally, exports of goods and services rose by 4.4% (from 9.5% in 3Q24), with a positive contribution from exports of goods (mainly soybean and cellulose exports). Imports of goods and services rose by 3.8% yoy (from -2.7% yoy) driven by an increase in oil imports due to the opening of the refinery.
Our take: We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 2.3%, with upside risks stemming from high carryover and the expected improvement in the tourism season in 1Q25.