National presidential and legislative elections were held on Sunday October 27, along with two plebiscites. The turnout was 89%, similar to the previous election.
According to the Electoral Court’s results, Yamandú Orsi (opposition from the Frente Amplio) led the race with 43.9% of the votes, followed by Álvaro Delgado (Partido Nacional) with 26.8% and Andrés Ojeda (Partido Colorado) with 16.0%. The results were broadly in line with the average of polls leading up to the election. As was expected, the first-round results will lead to a runoff on November 24, between the Frente Amplio and the coalition of the Nacional, Colorado, Cabildo Abierto, and Independent parties.
A plebiscite on market-distorting social security issues was rejected. The plebiscite to repeal the social security reform was approved by only 38.8%, well below the 50% (plus one vote) needed to pass. The result was even lower than was shown in the polls available at the end of last week (40% on average). Separately, a second plebiscite on night raids was also rejected (39.4%, also below the 50% plus one vote required).
A divided parliament. According to preliminary results, the Frente Amplio would have a majority in the Senate, while the Coalition would have a majority in the Lower Chamber. In the Senate, the Frente Amplio will have 16 seats (+3) out of a total of 30 seats, followed by the Nacional party with 9 (-1) and the Colorado Party with 5 (+1); thus, the coalition will have 14 seats (-3). In the Lower Chamber, the Frente Amplio will have 48 seats (+6), followed by the Nacional party with 29 (-1) and the Colorado Party with 17 (+4). Thus, the coalition will have 50 seats (-6) including other parties, out of a total of 99 seats.
A new race begins for the November 24 runoff. Sunday’s election results point to a tight second round. In the short term, we expect a positive market reaction, mainly due to the rejection of the social security plebiscite, which was the main reason for the volatility in domestic markets last month. On the other hand, a divided congress could lead to a welcome checks and balances across Uruguay’s already strong institutions. All eyes will now be on the mandatory debate between presidential candidates Orsi and Delgado, which will be held on November 14th.